Consumer spending

We produce small area income and consumers expenditure estimates for 45 categories of spending, and project these forward for ten years ahead. The national level controls on income and spending are derived from the National Accounts data series. We also use the annual Family Spending survey to disaggregate some of the standard ‘COICOP’ spending categories into finer detail, and to aggregate some others.

Data on spending and income for selected subgroups of the population by lifestage, family structure, social grade, employment status is used to construct spending by income decile in each small area.

The forecasts of national change in consumer spending and prices are   consistent with a broad average of a range of official and independent medium term economic forecasts. The national change in individual spending items, take into account past growth rates, past fluctuations of growth within the economic cycle – durables fluctuate more than convenience and ‘essentials’ – and taking into account anticipated  trends in prices under global market changes.

Small area forecasts for small areas differential growth rate depend on the  level of income. In the past there has been increasing polarisation – with higher income areas gradually growing more prosperous than lower income areas. The method  draws on various academic analyses  of trends in income polarisation in small areas.

Number CES category Spend group Broad category
1 Women’s wear Clothing and footwear Comparison
2 Lingerie Clothing and footwear Comparison
3 Menswear Clothing and footwear Comparison
4 Children’s wear Clothing and footwear Comparison
5 Footwear Clothing and footwear Comparison
6 OTC Medicines Personal chemists goods Comparison
7 Toiletries / Cosmetics / Perfumes Personal chemists goods Comparison
8 Optician Personal chemists goods Comparison
9 Jewellery / clocks Personal goods Comparison
10 Handbags / luggage Personal goods Comparison
11 White goods Household durables Comparison /bulky
12 Brown goods Audio visual durables Comparison
13 Mobile telephones Audio visual durables Comparison
14 TV and video hire Services Services
15 Photographic equipment Audio visual durables Comparison
16 Furniture Household durables Comparison /bulky
17 Floor coverings Household durables Comparison /bulky
18 Textiles and Furnishings Household durables Comparison
19 Household accessories Household goods Comparison
20 DIY Household goods Comparison /bulky
21 Books Leisure goods Comparison
22 Developing and Printing Services Services
23 Newspaper / magazines Leisure goods Convenience
24 Recorded music and video Leisure goods Comparison
25 Toys Leisure goods Comparison
26 Sports equipment Leisure goods Comparison
27 Bikes Leisure goods Comparison
28 Horticultural goods Leisure goods Comparison
29 Musical Instruments Leisure goods Comparison
30 Greeting cards Leisure goods Comparison
31 Personal Stationery Leisure goods Comparison
32 Tobacco Grocery Convenience
33 Alcohol Grocery Convenience
34 Food Grocery Convenience
35 Non-durable household goods Grocery Convenience
36 Pets goods Grocery Convenience
37 Fast food Eating out Eating out
38 Restaurant Eating out Eating out
39 In-Store Eating out Eating out
40 Pub- food Eating out Eating out
41 Theatre Entertainment Services Services
42 Hairdressing Services Services
43 Footwear repair Services Services
44 Laundry Cleaning Services Services
45 Betting Services Services
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