Population forecasts

Population forecasts for small areas for ten years ahead are consistent with the ‘official’ projections for the UK and  local authority areas.

The method  uses  ONS estimates of past trends in the relative  growth of small areas (super output areas) in relation to the growth in the surrounding local authority populations, and estimates modifications in these relative small area trends in the future, using local demographics.

Forecasts are produced for census output areas, and for  postal sectors, as for example in the table below.

 

Postal sector P09 P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 P19 P20 P21
AB10 1 2268 2295 2320 2339 2358 2371 2388 2397 2404 2412 2418 2425 2432
AB10 6 10037 10106 10183 10224 10276 10323 10357 10390 10418 10447 10471 10495 10517
AB10 7 8574 8611 8641 8667 8694 8712 8734 8755 8779 8796 8819 8832 8845
AB11 5 1360 1377 1394 1404 1415 1425 1434 1441 1445 1450 1454 1457 1462
AB11 6 5498 5561 5630 5672 5716 5753 5778 5810 5834 5852 5866 5880 5900
AB11 7 2767 2777 2784 2789 2801 2806 2813 2823 2826 2829 2840 2844 2848
AB11 8 6464 6487 6511 6524 6549 6562 6580 6593 6608 6624 6633 6650 6663